UAE Exits OPEC After Six Decades, Reshaping Global Oil Order

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UAE to Leave OPEC Effective May 1

The United Arab Emirates announced on April 28, 2026 that it will withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its broader alliance, OPEC+, with the exit taking effect on May 1.

UAE Energy and Infrastructure Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said in a statement that the decision "reflects a policy-driven evolution aligned with long-term market fundamentals." In an official statement distributed through the state news agency WAM, the UAE government declared that "the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates and our commitment to our investors, customers, partners and global energy markets."

What Is OPEC?

OPEC is an intergovernmental organization of oil-producing nations founded in 1960. Its current members include major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait. The group directly influences global oil prices by coordinating production quotas among its members. The UAE — then represented by Abu Dhabi — joined OPEC in 1967, nearly seven years after the organization's founding, and had maintained its membership for close to six decades until this announcement.

OPEC+ is an expanded coalition that includes OPEC members alongside non-member producers led by Russia. The UAE has played a significant role within both groupings.

The Iran War and an Unprecedented Energy Shock

The UAE's withdrawal comes against the backdrop of a historic energy supply disruption triggered by the Iran war.

According to the International Energy Agency's April 2026 Oil Market Report, ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and severe restrictions on tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz caused global oil supply to plunge by 10.1 million barrels per day in March — the largest disruption in modern energy history. OPEC+ production fell by 9.4 million barrels per day month-on-month to 42.4 million barrels per day.

OPEC's own data showed the group's total production dropped 27% month-on-month, from 28.7 million barrels per day to 20.8 million barrels per day. Iraq recorded the steepest decline at 61%, followed by Kuwait at 53% and the UAE at 44%. North Sea Dated crude was trading around $130 per barrel at the time of writing — approximately $60 above pre-conflict levels.

Throughout the conflict, the UAE has been a repeated target of Iranian missile and drone attacks. UAE presidential diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash publicly criticized the regional response, stating that Gulf Cooperation Council countries "supported each other logistically, but politically and militarily, I think their position has been the weakest historically."

Why the UAE Is Leaving: Independence and National Interest

The UAE energy ministry said the decision followed a comprehensive review of its production policy and capacity. The UAE is the world's seventh-largest oil producer and was the third-largest within OPEC, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, with production capacity exceeding 4 million barrels per day.

The ministry stated that independence from OPEC will give the UAE greater flexibility to respond to evolving market dynamics — particularly the urgent supply needs created by the Strait of Hormuz disruptions. An energy industry source familiar with the decision said it "is good for consumers and good for the world," adding that the UAE's ability to bring more supply to market would help ease prices.

The UAE's official statement emphasized that the exit "does not alter the UAE's commitment to global market stability or its approach based on cooperation with producers and consumers."

A Major Blow to OPEC and a Win for Washington

Analysts and media organizations have described the UAE's departure as one of the most significant blows in OPEC's history. Reuters reported that the loss deals a heavy blow to the group and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a moment when the organization is already under severe strain from the Iran war.

The announcement also arrives as a diplomatic win for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly accused OPEC of inflating oil prices and "ripping off the rest of the world." Trump has linked U.S. military support for Gulf states to oil pricing, creating additional pressure on the group. Bloomberg noted that the UAE exit aligns with Washington's long-standing push against OPEC's supply management model.

Qatar previously left OPEC in 2019, citing the limited relevance of membership given its identity as a leading natural gas producer. The UAE's departure is the most consequential exit since.

The UAE energy ministry said in closing: "During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all" — and reaffirmed appreciation for OPEC's efforts while wishing the group continued success.

What Comes Next

The IEA projects that once the Iran war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, global markets could face an implied oversupply of 3.8 million barrels per day in the second half of 2026. At that point, OPEC+ will face a new challenge: managing the return of Gulf supply without triggering a sharp price collapse. The IEA noted that maintaining Brent crude above $70 in a post-war scenario would require significant continued production discipline from the group.

For now, Saudi Arabia remains the only OPEC+ member with meaningful spare capacity — estimated at approximately 3 million barrels per day — making it the critical swing producer as the situation continues to evolve.

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Sources

Bloomberg: UAE to Leave OPEC and OPEC+ Next Month
Reuters / Yahoo Finance: UAE leaves OPEC and OPEC+ in huge blow to global oil producers' group
The National: UAE announces it will leave Opec
CNBC: United Arab Emirates leaving OPEC, effective May 1
Al Jazeera: UAE leaves OPEC and OPEC+
Euronews: UAE decides to leave OPEC, citing focus on its national interest
The Hill: UAE announces plans to leave OPEC
IEA: Oil Market Report — April 2026
CNBC: Middle East oil production plunges due to Iran war, OPEC data shows

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